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星期五, 1月 29, 2016

Austerity Backlash Shifts Political Winds in Southern Europe/撙節遭逆襲 南歐政壇大風吹


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2016/01/29 第101期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Austerity Backlash Shifts Political Winds in Southern Europe/撙節遭逆襲 南歐政壇大風吹
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Austerity Backlash Shifts Political Winds in Southern Europe/撙節遭逆襲 南歐政壇大風吹
Raphael Minder
王麗娟譯

A backlash against austerity has now clearly cracked the club of parties that had a lock on politics, particularly in Europe's heavily indebted south, and ushered in a new generation of challengers.

The outcome in Spain was messy and it could well take weeks of haggling among the parties to sort out who will be able to govern. But in a close approximation of the October election result in Portugal, a majority of Spaniards voted against what had been an austerity-minded government.

撙節政策引起的反撲,如今無疑已讓原本緊緊掌控政壇的政黨俱樂部開始鬆手,特別是在債台高築的南歐,從而引進新世代的挑戰者。

西班牙的大選結果只有一個亂字了得,政黨間很可能得花數周時間討價還價,才能解決由哪個政黨執政的問題。然而它和10月葡萄牙大選結果極其相似,多數的西班牙人投票拉下抱持撙節心態的政府。

Those outcomes followed the repudiation of an austerity government in Greece early this year.

"The sense of political crisis in Spain and some other European countries is clearly the fruit of the economic crisis," said Jaime Pastor, a professor of politics at the Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia in Madrid.

繼年初希臘選民拒絕接受實施撙節的政府後,這些大選結果也相繼發生。

馬德里的國立遠距教育大學政治學教授海梅.巴斯多說:「西班牙和另一些歐洲國家的政治危機感,顯然是經濟危機的結果。」

The financial crisis, he argued, first put into question the viability of the region's economic model and welfare state, but eventually turned into "a debate over whether the cost of the crisis was shared fairly, to which many voters answered negatively and are therefore demanding the removal of the crony capitalism of the big parties."

"Crises take place with a certain time lag, so it's clear the Spanish system of political parties has entered a transition, but not clear how long that transition will take," said Antonio Barroso, a Spanish political analyst at Teneo Intelligence, a think tank in London.In southern Europe, perhaps Italy alone has been spared the instability of a breakdown of its main party system.

他認為,金融危機最先是使該地區經濟模式與福利國家制度的存續性遭受質疑,最終更變成「有關這項危機的代價是否公平分攤的辯論,許多選民的答案是否定的,因此要求擺脫大黨的裙帶資本主義。」

倫敦智庫「泰尼歐情報」西班牙政治分析家安東尼奧.巴羅索說:「危機的發生有一定的時間差,因此,西班牙政黨制度顯然已進入轉型期,但不清楚轉型需要多久。」南歐國家中,或許只有義大利沒有出現主要政黨制度瓦解而導致的不穩定局面。

But even there, it is not clear that the storm has passed, and analysts note that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's popularity has declined since he took office last year, as the public pressure for changes has not relented.

In Portugal, Socialist leader Antonio Costa, 54, survived a poor election result and then managed last month to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat after striking an improbable alliance with far-left, anti-establishment parties in order to oust the center-right coalition that had won the most votes in the national election in October.

但即使是義大利,風暴是否已過也還並不明朗,分析家指出,總理馬泰奧.倫齊去年上台以來民望已經下降,要求改變的公眾壓力從未減弱。

在葡萄牙,54歲的社會黨領導人安東尼奧.柯斯塔在大選結果欠佳,但僥倖存活後,上個月,為能驅逐在10月大選中贏得最多選票的中間偏右執政聯盟,柯斯塔與一些極左派反建制政黨結成令人跌破眼鏡的的聯盟,結果反敗為勝。

But even if more voters have rejected austerity, where this will take the region is uncertain.

As the result in Greece showed, even anti-austerity parties have to answer to financial markets and balance national budgets, and the numbers are still deeply stacked against the policies of the old left and their heavy spending on welfare states.

不過,即使有更多的選民反對撙節政策,這個地區未來將何去何從仍是未知數。

正如希臘的結果所顯示的,即使是反撙節的政黨同樣得理會金融市場並平衡國家預算,而且希臘的債務數字仍堆得很高,不利於左派主張的政策,以及他們福利國家的龐大開支。

 
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