120530-新唐人-《纽时》：中国现苏共解体前兆

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【禁闻】《纽时》：中国现苏共解体前兆
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【新唐人2012年5月31日讯】前苏联结束共产统治的领导人是第五代。有分析认为，苏联解体是因为它的道德和文化的衰败。而在中共第五代领导人 换届前夕，中国的普通民众和著名人士都反映，中国社会一直处于道德普遍下滑之中。《纽约时报》发表文章指出，中国目前已经重现苏共解体前兆。而我 们现在看到的中国的情况，难道就是共产政权结束前的时刻吗？共产政权，是不是如《纽约时报》所说，有一个天定的寿命？下面一起听听专家怎么说。

共产政权五代寿终吗？5月25号《纽约时报》登出一篇�前进中的中国真的是脚踏实地吗？�(As China Marches Ahead, Is It On Solid Ground? )文章，其中作者(DIDI KIRSTEN TATLOW)比较了前苏联解体前的社会状态和当前中国社会出现的问题，作者提出，我们现在看到的中国情况难道就是（共产政权）结束前的时刻吗？

作者还引述�美国企业研究所�的Leon Aron在去年《外交政策》杂志上发表的文章内容说，苏联的解体不是因为经济的衰弱，尽管那时它面临着严峻的挑战；苏联的解体也不是因为阿富汗战争，尽管 那是一个负担。Aron指出，事实上，苏联解体是因为它的道德和文化的衰败。

文章说，大多大陆民众和著名人士认为，中国社会一直处于道德普遍下滑之中。甚至连总理温家宝都说，中国社会和政治正遭受腐败侵蚀，缺乏�可信 度�。

而原苏联总理尼古拉．雷日科夫（Nikolai I. Ryzhkov），对当年的社会也直言不讳的说：我们偷自己的东西，收贿受贿，在报告中、报纸上、讲坛上撒谎，我们沉溺在谎言中，互相给对方发奖牌。所有 这一切―从上到下、从下到上的发生着。

文章还指出，前苏联解体共产统治的领导人是第五代，目前中共正处于第五代领导人换届前夕，同时，当前中国的经济疲弱、道德下滑，对中国构成了问 题。

旅居荷兰的时政评论人士立里向《新唐人》表示，按照目前大陆政经充满不确定性的情势发展下去，未来将和苏联一样走向崩溃。

立里：�苏联共产帝国直到崩溃前一刻，人们一直都没预料到，还以为它会长期维持稳定存在下去。所有专制帝国的崩溃都是重复这样的故事；没有崩溃 前，看起来总是强大无比威风八面，无数的奴才效忠做帮凶，钻营食利。而一旦大厦将倾，则树倒猢狲散，墙倒众人推。�

时事评论员蓝述认为，中共信奉共产主义，而共产主义却和人类最基本的仁道、人性背道而驰。中共暴力革命信奉的枪杆子里面出政权，就是否定人性善的 一面。

时事评论员蓝述：�第一代人为之奋斗，第二代人的时候，可能觉得在这个文化领域过的很不舒服，第三代、第四代可能就很难在这个文化中继续生存下 去。因为它是个反人类的文化，它和人性是彻底作对的，在这种情况下，一定时间人就不在相信它了。中国共产党，它已经彻底在民众中失去它执政的威 信。 �

2001年出版的�中国即将崩溃�一书作者章家敦预测：中国社会体制因种种问题将在少至五年、大至十年内崩溃。章家敦分析指出，北京表面看来平 静，实则暗潮汹涌，中国社会改变正在加速，在敏感时刻，各地出现连串暴动，都有革命的隐喻。

立里：�因为这种政权基础是谎言和暴力，人们心中早就明白一切都是假的，只是为了眼前的利益而顺从暴政，它早就丧失了继续存在的根本道德基础，因 此其崩溃也是必然的，虽然何时崩溃是偶然的。�

《纽约时报》的文章认为，习近平，这个将成为中国下任国家主席的人，也将是中共第五代领导人。到目前为止，还没有证据表明，习近平将成为像戈尔巴 乔夫一样的改革者。

采访编辑/常春 后制/肖颜


NY Times: the precursor of collapse in China is just like that of the former Soviet Union

It was the fifth generation who ended Communist rule
in the former Soviet Union.
Analysis said that the Soviet Union fell because it became
morally and culturally weak.
As China prepares for its fifth generation, widespread moral
decline has long plagued China, "according to both ordinary and prominent Chinese," the article reads.
New York Times (NY Times) said that the precursor
of collapse has shown up in China just like that of the former Soviet Union.
"Are we looking at the end game?" the article asks.

Do Communist states, perhaps, have a natural lifespan
as NY Times said? Here is what experts say.

Will communism come to an end at the fifth generation?

On May 25, NY Times published an article entitled,
"As China Marches Ahead, Is It On Solid Ground?"
The author, Didi Kirsten Tatlow, compares Chinese society
with that of the Soviet Union before its break-up,
and questions if we are looking at the end game of
Chinese Communism.

The author also cited Leon Aron of the American Enterprise
Institute.
In an essay published in Foreign Policy magazine last year,
Leon argued that the Soviet Union didn't fall because
it was economically weakened,
despite its profound challenges in that realm.
Nor was the Soviets' war in Afghanistan the death knell,
though it was a burden.
"The Soviet Union fell because it was morally and culturally
weakened," Mr. Aron stated to the NY Times.

The NY Times article also said that widespread moral decline
has long plagued China, according to both ordinary and prominent Chinese.
Even prime minister Wen Jiabao, at a news conference
in March, said that Chinese society and politics suffer from corruption and a lack of credibility.

Nikolai I. Ryzhkov, former prime minister of Soviet Union,
was blunt about what Soviet society had become: "(We) stole
from ourselves, took and gave bribes, lied in the reports,
in newspapers, from high podiums, wallowed in our lies,
hung medals on one another.
And all of this - from top to bottom and from bottom to top."

The article also said that these reports of a weakening
economy combined with concern over morals pose a question
for China as it prepares for its fifth generation of
post-revolutionary leaders ―
the same generation that ended Communist rule
in the former Soviet Union.

Li Li, current affairs commentator residing in Holland,
told New Tang Dynasty TV that the Chinese communism
is going bankrupt just like the Soviet Union, as China's
economy develops with hidden uncertainties.

Li Li: "Similarly, people thought the Soviet Union regime
would sustain until its break-up. All the tyrannical regimes repeat the same story.
They look powerful, with slaves as accomplices and stooges
taking advantage.
There is an old saying that a tree falls and the monkeys scatter.
And when the regime is about to collapse, everyone will give it a push."

Lan Shu, current affairs commentator, said that the communism
worshipped by CCP goes against fundamental humanity.
CCP believes that political power grows out of guns,
which rejects the goodness of human nature.

Lan Shu, current affairs commentator: "The first generation
fought for it, the second found it uncomfortable,
and the third and fourth struggle to survive, as it goes against
humanity and the whole human society.
Under such circumstances, gradually, people don't trust
it anymore.
CCP has completely lost its prestige among the public."

Zhang Jiadun, the author of The Coming Collapse of China
published in 2001, predicted that in 5 to 10 years, China's social system will collapse due to various problems.
Zhang said that many undercurrents flow beneath
the deceptively calm surface of Beijing, and China's social reform is accelerating.
A series of riots happened over the country on sensitive
occasions show the precursor of revolution.

Li Li said: "A tyrannical regime is based on lies and force,
so the public clearly knows that it is unreliable, but simply obey it for their personal interests.
The regime has lost its basic moral foundation, therefore
its collapse is not avoidable, (we) just don't know when."

The NY Times article said that Xi Jinping, the man tapped
to become China's next president, will also be a fifth-generation leader.
"So far, no one has made a convincing argument that Mr. Xi
is a reformer like Mr. Gorbachev," says the article.

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